The Curious Case of Michael Floyd

Well, I just sent in my very large check for the football lottery which makes me think it is time to start blogging about Football 2011. Hope to be at all the home games and make road trips to Pitt, Maryland and Stanford this fall. We will look forward to seeing you Irish fans at those games!

During our sabbatical from football blogging, a bonehead by the name of Michael Floyd got pulled over on a DUI as you have surely read. You remember him, the guy that passed on a lower round draft in the NFL to finish his senior season at ND and prove he is the best receiver in college football. The story is still unfolding but now there is a possibility that he may not have the chance.

In a stunning departure from recent history, ND's Residential Life office punted on a punishment for Floyd and moved the drama to the football office; in particular to the desk of Brian Kelly. Similar or lesser offenses by ND athletes have resulted in semester suspensions or similar punishments. Perhaps all the facts are not yet out. For example, Floyd pleaded not guilty to the DUI at his first court appearance. But this will be an interesting saga however it plays out over the summer.

Here I portray the possible outcomes to this story with my odds on each one.

1. Floyd is dropped from the roster and never plays another game for Notre Dame (0%). There are some of even the most diehard fans that are suggesting this is the right thing for Kelly to do if for no other reason than proving ND does not put up with this kind of behavior. This was Floyd's third drinking related incident in college and even worse it was a DUI which we all know is often attached to many young adult deaths.

If this was going to happen it probably would have happened by now. Of course Michael could do something else stupid this summer but I am guessing he is on a pretty tight leash and knows he has one foot off the team as it is. Kelly is unlikely to severely hurt his NFL prospects by throwing him in the supplemental draft or free agent market.

2. Floyd is suspended from the team for several games this fall (25%). Given the severity of the incident, previous history and Kelly's own statements about what he expects from his players the penalty may surprise some people and cover more than a token suspension. Kelly is just the kind of guy ("next man in") that may want to prove no one is bigger than the team. Floyd is probably the best player at Notre Dame, a huge offensive weapon and would clearly take significant pressure off our developing quarterbacks. How sweet would it be for Kelly and for the psyche of the team to win the first 3 or 4 games of the season without Floyd on the field? With road games against Michigan and Pitt (both with new coaches) and winnable home games against South Florida and MSU I can see this scenario coming to fruition. Actually this is kind of what I hope happens. It would shut up a lot of the ND haters, build an "us against the world" mentality like we saw in late 2010 and most importantly help to teach Floyd an important lesson of accountability.

3. Floyd is suspended for the opener against South Florida but suits up in time for the second game at Michigan (65%). This seems to be the consensus pick in the blogosphere and among sports writers so far. ND will be able to say it punished him while still giving the young man a chance to redeem himself on and off the field. We do want the kid to get his degree as well.

My concern about this scenario is that it is barely a jump above "slap on the wrist" in terms of punishment and will rightly be perceived as a token action by Notre Dame. Many will see this type of punishment as proof that ND is just like many other football powerhouses that look the other way when star players run afoul of the law. One can make an argument like that if in fact Michael only sits out one game. We will never know all the things going on behind the scenes but there is no question the team is better with Floyd on the field so this is probably what will happen.

4. Floyd blows his current penalty box agreement and leaves ND (10%). I had to put this in as an option because Michael has shown he is not the sharpest tack in the box and might just disappoint his fans and his friends by blowing it again. Unlikely but possible.

However this plays out, it will teach us something about Notre Dame, Brian Kelly and Michael Floyd. It may also be a significant factor in the arc of the season for the Irish this fall. Never a dull moment!

Go Irish! Beat Bulls!