Sunday, September 27, 2009

The Cardiac Kids do it Again!

Wow, this is getting kind of hard as I get older. Can we just have a blowout again? Let's go with Bad News, Good News, and Head Scratchers this week.

Bad News. Lots of penalties again. Very poor tackling throughout on defense; let's work on some fundamentals. Waiting to see something work regularly with this defense; see lots of "watch and stick" (but we miss many tackles!). DBs rarely seem to be close to the ball. Blitzes seem to be consistently read by opposing QBs. Punts were a little shaky but the kickoffs are getting better as the Colonel notes.

Good News. Held a good Purdue running team to 74 yards. Wildcat with Crist is like a whole new team in there (reminds of the late 40's Irish that played two first string squads because they had so many great players). Jimmy comes through again. He said Charlie would not get fired because of his QB play and he has delivered. Reminds me of Joe Montana years; we should always believe. Most importantly I think the team showed a lot of heart and once again played hard till the end. Last year we lost several leads and folded. We have seen the opposite in the last three games including Michigan. Very encouraging. Back up receivers did fill some of the void and Charlie figured out a nice way to get the ball in the hands of Tate often. Some excellent blocking on offense throughout the game. Crist looked okay and it is nice to have him around. That time on the field will pay off later. Really fun to win at smash mouth football during 2nd quarter.

Head Scratchers. Why does it seem we are usually in the wrong defensive set for the opponent's play call? Do they have our signals? Weis looks like a genius with the Crist wildcat package; why can't he be more consistent? He had Purdue completely confused. My team star McCarthy misses coverage and Purdue walks in for a score. Why, why, why don't we go to Rudolph more? Oh Yeah, and why did Purdue call a timeout to help us catch our breath and get a play at the end? Bad move.

Think of it this way. We win a tough one without Floyd, without Allen and with half a Clausen. Feels good to have some depth. If Armando and Jimmy are healthy next week we should win comfortably. Another heart stopper otherwise.

Go Irish! Beat Huskies!

A Win By Any Other Name...

Well that was interesting.

We ran like four completely different offenses tonite, it seemed. Let no one doubt, however, that JC is the real deal. He most certainly is. His team called on him to perform above and beyond in the 4th quarter, and he delivered. Todd Blackledge (great color guy) had it right—find his tight end. Fortunately, Kyle Rudolph ran the perfect route and JC hit him square on. Excellent drive, beautiful final play. 12 plays, 72 yards, Game Over.

In some respects, this might have been one of Charlie’s best games ever, offensively speaking. True, we scored our season low in points, but he had to improvise the whole night. I’m not sure why we didn’t come out in the 3rd quarter like we did in the second, but hell, we had the ball for like 13 minutes, so I guess I can’t complain. (Except that we didn’t score any points.)

I thought we had a turning point, in the wrong way, when we got sacked on 4th and 10 and then Purdue passed for 28 yards on their first play after that. It would have been the turning point, except that JC had the antidote for that.

Oh, and, by the way, Sam Young might be the worst offensive lineman ever to start for four years. He’s awful and will never amount to anything in the NFL.

On the plus side, isn’t nice to be able to assume reasonable length field goals are going to be good? And Nick’s kick offs have been getting progressively deeper, week to week. At least one tonight took the receiver into the end zone. And he’s just a freshman!

But boy we still give up a lot of big plays on defense. I counted 5 plays each half of over 15 yards from scrimmage for Purdue’s offense. While we did a very good job in the first half after the first drive, I never really felt confident as the momentum was shifting late in the third quarter.

A sad picture when they showed Floyd, Aldridge and Allen standing next to each other on the sideline, huh? And Jimmy was hobbled too, as we all know. But we managed to rush for 200 yards, which should almost always mean a W for us. And JC was 6 for 9 when we needed him on the final drive.

Officiating was good; I felt like all the calls were warranted and they didn’t miss any egregious fouls. And replay played no role this week, thank goodness.

And so we join a bunch of teams at 3-1. Many of them (USC and Penn State, to name two) didn’t think they’d have a loss this early. Four top ten teams and seven of the top 25 lost this week. And Florida’s season took a dicey turn as well with Tebow’s concussion. And like clockwork, our next opponent, Washington, lost in advance of their game with the Irish. Could have predicted that one. The beat USC, have to go to South Bend next week, of course this one was a trap game for them.

We’ll be 10 point favorites Saturday, and we’ll cover, if Jimmy’s toe is improved. On to October.

GO IRISH!!!! BEAT HUSKIES!!!!

Saturday, September 26, 2009

We'd Better Win...

I'm with Don; easier is good. I was surprised earlier in the week when we were "only" 8.5 point favorites. Thought we'd be around 10. This morning it's looking like 8 even. Aside question: has anyone figured out in what order they list the point spreads in the newspaper? It's not in alpha order either by home or visiting team. It's not in ascending or descending point spread or over/under total. Why this total randomness?

Anyway...

JC will play today, although I'm reading that AA is a "game time decision" due to his ankle. Hope he plays. Purdue's giving up an average of 32 points so far. And two of their opponents were Toledo and Northern Illinois. so we should be able to score. I think getting the running game going early will be something Charlie wants to do to take the pressure off both JC's toe and the defense. A good day for long sustained drives.

Scary to think we could be hosting a 3-1, Top 25, already beat USC, Washington team next week. That's if the Huskies beat Stanford today. So our schedule isn't getting easier as some of our opponents display some better than expected improvement. I hope we're able to use today as a "tune up" for perhaps our toughest 3-game stretch of the season--Washington, USC, BC.

Possession, field position, give our defense the week off. That's the game we should play. Will we?

The over/under today is 60. Take the Irish -8 and the under.

ND 30 Purdue 20

GO IRISH!!!! BEAT BOILERS!!!!

The Colonel

Friday, September 25, 2009

How about an "easier" win?

Newspaper says ND favored by 7 tomorrow. I thought the line might be more points than appropriate but that seems about right from a spread standpoint.

I think the Irish will step it up a bit with a little stronger defensive performance and beat the spread.

ND 33, Purdue 20.

Go Irish!

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Winning Ugly is more fun than Losing!

As the game was coming to a close yesterday, I had this feeling of impending doom. The defense could not stop MSU and the scenario was playing out in an eerily familiar way to the Michigan game. But we FINALLY got some pressure on the QB, he made a bad throw, and McCarthy (Mr. Everything) picks it off to seal the win. The finish was a relief more than a celebration because I felt we should have lost vs. the Michigan game where I felt we should have won. But that is the way the football bounces.

Now I hope this is a big turning point for the Irish. A close tough win that gets them to a new level as we go forward. I am very concerned about the loss of Floyd; I remember how painful his absence was at the end of last season and at the end of the Michigan game. I hope the other guys step up to fill the void. Armando Allen and Tate certainly did yesterday. Huge strategic mistake by MSU not to double Tate after Floyd left, he burned them big time. And as the Colonel pointed out last week, Allen has become a bull and runs with authority (and can run the Wildcat!).

On the Weis front, I almost feel a little bad for him because yesterday's game does not get him off the hotseat. In fact I feel the next 2 games shape up as must wins for his future as well. The only thing that would give him some breathing room is a victory over USC, which while possible is unlikely. He is the coach of the whole team and despite our offensive prowess, the defense is actually getting worse and the mental errors by the Irish are increasing not decreasing as they should be. Charlie probably should have kept his mouth shut about the Big10 ref bungles at Michigan because there may have been a little payback yesterday. I think they got most of the calls right but could not help feeling that anything in the gray zone was going against the Irish and that really hurts in a close game. I will give Charlie some credit for his strategy early in Q1 and Q3. In both cases he out coached MSU and kept them off balance. Interesting choice to defer until the second half. In his post game comments he demonstrated that he clearly had learned from previous losses to MSU. Overall I give Charlie a C+, he still has to do better.

Also on the grading front. Another A to Jimmy. He made a couple bad throws but I raise his grade for 3 reasons. He played hurt most of the game, won it by noticing and adjusting to a corner blitz on the last touchdown to Tate, and threw several of the best passes I have ever seen. I don't know if the TV broadcast could possibly have shown how pretty some of his long throws were; truly things of beauty. He also made good choices and stepped up in the pocket for some key runs. We have a quarterback! Oline and running game get a B. Stupid mental errors cost us again but we had several nice runs for key gains including my favorite 3rd/short drive extenders. Defense gets an F. Nothing seemed to work and our dbacks were watching plays in front of them all day. I kept begging for someone to make a play and we hardly got any. Quite a few missed tackles as well. One positive note back on offense: Rudolph reappears as a key threat.

Band Notes. The MSU band joined our band for a closing number from West Side Story. Unfortunately this meant that the Irish band did not close with the Victory March which was sorely needed at halftime. I am very proud to note that our daughter Angela was chosen to write the regular band article in the football program AND our son Tony was in the trombone photo on the game ticket! Quite a day in the Ginocchio household.

Now on to Purdue who in typical ND opponent fashion lost in an upset before facing us next week. Bummer. But hey USC pulled a typical letdown by losing to Washington so all is right with the world.

Go Irish! Beat Boilers!

Deja Vu Interruptus

What a difference a week makes, huh?

It was all unraveling again, wasn’t it? How many of you said, “Holy cow--last week, 38-34 and this week it’s gonna be 37-33”? I know I did. We were staring 1-2 in the face.

But it was not to be. A defense that broke down all day managed to deal up good pressure and forced a sophomore QB to forget he was in field goal range and throw off his back foot across his body. And there was our already crowned (by me) defensive player of the year, Kyle McCarthy, to collect on the mistake. Before the INT, we gave up 7 for 9 completions for 66 yards. And we should have given up a TD on the previous play. But for some reason, today, the football gods were smiling on the Irish.

Mediocre (I’m being kind) defense and penalties were again our bane today. While I appreciate the fact that Sam Young has started like 350 games at offensive tackle, he should be better than he is after all those starts and his unsportsmanlike penalty was horrendous, when we might have been able to run out the clock. 99 yards of penalties today. We need to cut that by half at least as we move ahead.

And our defense hasn’t demonstrated much dominance, has it? We do blitz a lot, but that was only helpful randomly today. I counted nine MSU offensive plays of over 15 yards, six of them in the second half. That’s not good. We gave up 459 yards—ouch. Again, need to cut that in half.

Can’t complain about the offense, other than the injury toll. Don’t expect to see Michael Floyd back before the bowl game. And we’ll have to see about JC’s toe. Oh, and, by the way, that was a touchdown. How in the world could the replay official have not seen that? Two weeks in a row, we have a pretty clear TD nullified. Jeez.

But the offense did a pretty good job of switching between no huddle and 5 wides to running out of the I. Armando Allen is a complete stud; he has completely transformed himself. Even with MF out, I think we can be a very good offense. Robby Paris knows how to get open, and if Golden Tate can stop the yips, we’ll be fine. JC is money as long as his toe is OK. He’ll be a Heisman candidate next year.

Wasn’t that the best onside kick you ever saw? It wend 10.000001 yards forward and then bounced back toward MSU! Not that we were anywhere near close to covering it even if it kept moving forward. But wow—give the kicker an extra bowl of granola tomorrow. YouTube worthy.

Oh, and, mixed emotions from me on the Wildcat Formation. Admittedly very helpful today with JC’s toe that AA was able to take some snaps. Although I’m betting he’s ragging AA for not throwing to him on the TD pass. Amazingly open, since MSU was thinking run. But AA probably can’t throw the quick out very well. Since he did throw out of it, finally, that might help later. He needs to hand off to GT every once in a while. And GT needs to learn not to run AA over on the sweep. I’m guessing it will stay in the playbook and it will improve over time.

Nick Tausch Bad—missed PAT. NT Good—2 for 2 FGs, including a 47 yarder that would have been good from 5-10 yards longer. NT medium – I’ve been screaming for years for a kicker that can get touchbacks. Until we get one, I’ll continue to scream. Nick Tausch Very Good--I’m very happy to have a freshman kicker we are getting comfortable with. Bodes well for the foreseeable future.

Highlight of the day: while in the grocery store, I was asked by the bagger how I was doing. It was very nice to respond, “Notre Dame won and Southern Cal lost, so I’m doing well.” The last time that happened was two years ago when we beat UCLA (I was there!) and SC lost to Stanford. Makes for a good week in the office for me. But now we have to worry about the Huskies.

So on we march to West Lafayette. Purdue lost to Northern Illinois, so that should be good news for us. But it could be kinda like MSU losing to Central. That didn’t help all that much, did it? While the Boilers are 1-2, they’re also averaging over 30 points per game, so our defense will be tested. Like the Godfather, I predicted 2-1 vs the Big Ten, so a W is a must.

Don’t think we’ll crack the Top 25, but we’ll be close. That’s OK. We’re 2-1; if, nine games from now we’re 11-1, this week’s ranking won’t be very relevant. Al Davis is a doddering fool, but in his more lucid days, he had a theme: Just Win Baby. I hope the boys in blue and gold embrace that theme.

GO IRISH!!! BEAT BOILERS!!!

The Colonel

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Let's Go Irish!

We demonstrated the ability to come back from two 11 point deficits last week. Let's see if we can bounce back from a really tough loss this week.

The spread is 10 and the over/under is 55. Take the Irish and the over. I think we'll continue to score in the 30s, especially if our running game mimics last week's. And I've gotta believe we can hold MSU to less than the 27 they scored against Central Michigan last week in a tough loss (to a much worse opponent) for them last week.

Hopefully the fans will be behind the team. Crowd noise was great vs Nevada, the assembled masses need to keep that up.

Final score: Irish 38, Spartans 20

GO IRISH!!! BEAT SPARTANS!!!

The Colonel

Delayed Michigan Assessment

Greetings All

Sorry for the delay. As I mentioned last weekend, I was back east for the game, then flew home early Sunday morning. Plus I had a conference all week that didn't allow for much time to sit and type during the week. I'll give this a quick try.

I debated whether I should read Godfather's post mortem before I wrote. I read it and he covered everything accurately and smoothly, as usual. Some additional thoughts from me:

I kept thinking after the game of how many people we could lay the "goat" claim on. Don pointed out AA's unsportsmanlike penalty--killer. How about all of Golden Tate's drops? That wasn't like him. I don't give JC an A--four of our six time outs were called to avoid a delay penalty, and we had 2 delay penalties. It wasn't crowd noise, although that is the loudest I've heard the place (as they mentioned many times). Realize some of the plays were coming in late, but I lay at least half of those on Clausen. He doesn't seem to have that internal clock synchronized just yet. He should by now.

While I won't disagree with calling a pass on 2nd and long on our last possession, I will question which pass. the sideline fade hadn't worked all day. No reason to assume it would now. It still seems on key plays, there's only one primary receiver and there's no Plan B. Like Don said, I would have trusted Rudolph to get open over the middle. I wrote down after this drive "Heckuva time to go 3 and out". Bad omen.

One more goat - the replay officials. I rarely complain about officiating, but I do not believe AA went out of bounds on the called back TD on our second drive. Certainly, we saw no "irrefutable" evidence on ABC.

The 3rd quarter Mo shift was really amazing. I was all jazzed that we came back from 11 down to get the lead. Although I wasn't happy we gave up that field goal at the end of the first half.

And yes, we came back again. Down 11 for the second time, we managed to get the lead. What we never managed to do was get a two score lead. If we had ever gone up 10 or 11, I think we would have been fine. Oh well.

I don't want to list all the freshman QBs we've made look like Heisman Trophy candidates this decade. (Rick Leach from our era comes to mind). And JaMarcus Russell (a sophomore, as I recall) should be sending 10% of his Raiders pay to the ND endowment every month. (Boy is he bad). So we'll see with Mr Forcier. I'd hate to be the other Frosh QB there, at least for now.

One last note. One of the items I keep track of is "big plays". I consider any gain from scrimmage of 15 yards or more a "BP". In the second half, the BP score was 5-1 against us.

I do believe we are a noticeably better team than last year. AA has kept true to his pledge not to go down on first contact. in the first quarter I wrote "AA is a bull this year". And that he is. Too bad for his bull#$%^ act in the end zone (although it wasn't that blatant). And our receivers are top shelf. O line is definitely improved. Defense is still a work in process. Probably somewhere in between a shutout (Nevada) and 31 points (UofM, minus the KO return; what was up with that??). I like our FG kicker, although we still can't recruit a "Touchback kicker-offer", seemingly.

Finally, my brother is out of the hospital; checked out Sunday. My analogy is he has the "Caesarian" of appendectomies. His appendix burst, there were complications, and his come back will much slower than a normal incident without rupture. He's home at least through next week, and is still recovering from having lost 20 lbs in a week. Not a weight loss method I'd recommend, believe me.

Enough on last week. Stand by for a short MSU prediction. Haven't had any research time this week, but THEY LOST TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN!

GO IRISH!!!! BEAT SPARTANS!!!

The Colonel

Friday, September 18, 2009

This is a MUST win - and we will

Irish are favored by 10 tomorrow despite MSU winning 9 of the last 12 and 6 of the last 6 at ND stadium. Both teams are coming off tough losses and need a win. But I think the difference in this one will be that ND is playing to save the "Weis era" and MSU is playing to save its non-conference season (big deal).

That may seem a little dramatic but I seriously think the Tar & Feathers crowd (led by me) will be coming out if ND loses tomorrow. No excuse to be 1-2 with this team. Because of that scenario and the fact that we have a better team, we should win tomorrow. I guessed we would lose one of the Big10 games this year; it just turned out to be Michigan. So now we go on a win streak starting tomorrow leading up to USC.

Trivia Bit: ND Band Show will feature music from West Side Story.

Irish 35; Spartans 27.

Go Irish!

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Which Type of Loss Hurts More?

For many years, football fans have debated the age old question: does it hurt more to get blown out or to lose a heartbreaking close game? My own experience is inconsistent. I remember being heartbroken by close losses to USC years ago and the close upsets to Pitt and Syracuse last year. Yet the many blowouts by USC did not trouble me as much in previous years. Yesterday, I did not feel horrible at the end because the Irish played very well at times and really 34 points should be enough to win. As my wife Nina stated, it was very disappointing but not embarrassing. And we have to give Michigan its due because they played well. But as we have seen in the past, little things add up to make the difference. As Charlie stated in his post-game comments, there were many faults in every aspect of the game that could have changed the outcome if they did not occur. These included not scoring more TDs on certain drives, dropped balls, many ill-timed penalties, defensive lapses (like the kickoff return), etc.

Many of the little ebbs and flows of the game evened out in my view. Both teams missed a field goal, both teams had many penalties, both teams had a key turnover, and there were bad calls in both directions. But the two key events that hurt the most in my judgment were the taunting penalty on Armando Allen (inexcusable for a veteran) and the loss of Michael Floyd for a few plays at the end. The penalty changed field position for the last 5 minutes and put our defense essentially on our half of the field for the remainder of the game at the worst possible time. The 3rd/10 quick out on our last series is probably a catch if Floyd is in there and we probably run out the clock. But that is just another coulda, shoulda, woulda.

My biggest disappointment is that I feel Charlie was outcoached in the halftime locker room again. Michigan came out with the adjustments in the 3rd quarter and completely changed the momentum of the game. While we came back admirably (a good sign), time of possession wore down our defense and we paid the price at the end. I like to focus on the first 5 minutes of the second half as a tone setter and Michigan was playing all the music at that point. Charlie does not know how to adjust or improve or anticipate what the other team will do (like go no huddle). He also demonstrated horrible clock management again with slow play calling and poor play choices. Bad game coach.

So here are a few notes from the game. First, Jimmy gets an A again. Another good passing day, good choices, looked poised. Offensive line and Armando get an A though the holding calls were frustrating (the refs really seemed possessed on that type of penalty). Jimmy had lots of time in the pocket. We ran for 154 yards and I loved the several successful runs for first downs on 3rd and short. Awesome. Defense had moments of brilliance but was stymied by Forcier and could not match the “speed of the game” with Michigan’s offense. Minor was averaging 10 yards/run well into the 3rd quarter so we did not defend the run or the pass well. We could not make the big stop to preserve the win at the end. One thing about the game: it was a heck of a game to watch in terms of excitement, scoring and lead changes. Contrasting it with the USC/OSU slugfest, I thought it was much more fun to watch (except that I care so much!). I also hoped to direct all my ill-will against USC last night but they went out and beat Ohio State again anyway; darn it.

Head scratchers and concerns. I would have liked to see Rudolph catch a few more though Allen filled some of that void. Was Forcier really that good or are we just that slow? Hard to know exactly where we are at because I need to see how Nevada and Michigan do going forward besides the Irish of course. Overall, I think this can still be a very good team and as always the question is whether they learn and improve or regress. Right now I feel pretty good about the next few games though MSU had to go and lose a heartbreaker themselves yesterday. They will be loaded for bear next week; hopefully so will we.

Go Irish! Beat Spartans!

Saturday, September 12, 2009

How does 11 seconds become 9 seconds?

Are we living in a parallel universe? Of course there were other errors in this game including stone hands by Golden Tate, but that one was the worst way to end a game I've ever seen. One more play might not have made a difference, but we should have had the opportunity to find out fairly.

It's enough to make me stop watching football.

Can We Win on the Road?

I think we can, I think we can...

Agree with the Godfather; the vibe (except from Mark May) is good. He actually picked Nevada last week; haven't heard him this week.

There are two match-ups I'm excited about: our defense against Michigan's young QBs, and our receivers against anyone. While I'd like to see the running game get going, if JC has another 15 for 18 with a 300+ QB rating like last week, it won't matter. Tougher to do on the road, obviously, but again, no one can stop Floyd, Tate and Rudolph. And Aldridge isn't playing today, so I'm not even sure who our second string fullback is these days.

I didn't really watch any of Michigan's game last week so haven't really scouted them. I think we'll see revolving QBs, which in my mind, rarely works, especially for a rebuilding team. I doubt Western Michigan was much of an opponent to judge their defense by.

I will repeat my regret from last week that I wished we had tried one or two field goals last week. They are definitely harder to come by on the road.

I'll be adding a new location for watching a game--a hospital room! I'm back in NJ visiting my brother Joel, who's recovering from a burst appendix with complications. He'll probably be out tomorrow or Monday, but for this afternoon, I'll be watching from his bedside. Hope his roommate isn't a Michigan fan!

So, as Don noted, the spread is Irish by 3 or so. I too believe we'll beat the spread by a few points at least. Irish 27 (yes, 2 field goals, after all my kvetching), Michigan 16.

Enjoy the game every one.

GO IRISH!!!! BEAT WOLVERINES!!!!

The Colonel

Friday, September 11, 2009

Irish skin the Wolverrines

But skinning a wolverine is a dangerous business!

The ND/Michigan game has become a nice rivalry on the schedule. The matchup has recently featured lots of upsets, failure to cover spreads, close games, fantastic finishes and big plays. I don't think tomorrow will fall into the "classic" category but I am very excited about it.

I like my early vibe on the Irish. What I hear and read convinces me they are taking a business like approach to the season and tomorrow they will take care of business. The spread in the paper is ND by 3 points. I think they will do better than that. Given the talent mix on both teams the Irish really should win. Of course crazy things happen every week.

Key factors for me will be the success of our run game, defensive speed in covering the spread Michigan offense and turnover ratio (the wild card).

So with all that in mind I predict ND 31, Michigan 20.

Go Irish!

Sunday, September 06, 2009

A very nice start!

After the bowl game last year I stated how long it had been since I felt so nice after a big game. This was another very nice feeling, albeit not quite as big of a game but the opener is always a bit of a mystery each year.

First a couple band/campus highlights. ND just sold out the game on Friday, kind of unusual for an opener I think. ND band show including tunes by Earth/Wind/Fire, Chicago, and the end-credits dance tune from "Slum Dog Millionaire". The last one was a crowd pleaser as you might imagine. Regular band announcer is overseas visiting his son in the military so there was a sub announcer, Dick Nolan (radio guy) who will also be at the Michigan game. The two teams engaged in a pre-game group hug to demonstrate sportsmanship (what the heck was that?). Maybe because of that Oregon - Boise State punching incident?

The colonel always has his legal pad with him during the game so I tried to keep a couple notes on my BB to remember my observations. Simple high level grading: Clausen = A, Oline = B, Defense = B, Weis = A. Jimmy had no bonehead plays, always threw to the right guy, looked very good. Lots of time in the pocket was great but run blocking still needs to improve, next week will tell us more on the run game. Defense pitched a shutout against a decent offense. The yards/play was high for Nevada but they made a few key mistakes and had a couple bad breaks. They really should have scored some points given the way they moved the ball at times. But you have to enjoy our first shutout in 5 years. Charlie gets an A for play calling and for having the team mentally ready. We played hard on every down.

Other observations: Michael Floyd is a stud, cannot be covered 1/1. If Tate, Floyd and Rudolph stay healthy we will give defenses fits. Loved to see a few tackles for losses by the D, really upset Nevada's flow. Defensive backfield closing speed is impressive, should help keep big plays down. Very few penalties, terrific! Several good looking freshmen contributed

Concerns: Lacked a little killer instinct in 2nd half. Losing the line of scrimmage on defense too often. Why does Charlie call those gimmick direct snap plays when the regular offense is clicking just fine? While we did okay on short yardage runs, run game was not dominant. A little too much showboating or taunting by the defense: have to watch from going over the line there.

Overall a terrific day and I am very encouraged. We have some tougher games ahead for sure, but if we play like we did yesterday we will win most of them.

Go Irish! Beat Wolverines!

Convincing, but not Convinced (Yet)

A lot to like about today’s nifty win over the (not so pesky, Godfather) Wolf Pack. Charlie’s first shutout—that surprised me.

The best numbers from the game? 68. 78. 80. 80. 99. Those are the yardage lengths of our five TD drives. We earned all our points. A very good thing.

Seven different receivers caught passes. Good. Four different backs got a good amount of carries. Also good. And a 3-0 turnover margin. Excellent.

An interesting oxymoron: Nevada had 9 offensive plays of 15 or greater yards but didn’t score a point. Four of them happened on three drives that ended in turnovers. And on the plus side, their longest gain was 24 yards, so they didn’t have any game breakers.

Unlike the Irish, which had 4 Big Plays (>= 15 yards) that turned in to TDs. Including two Major Big Plays, on short and long passes from JC to Mr Floyd that both resulted in paydirt.

And wow, only two penalties on opening day? And none of them false starts or delay of game? Oklahoma had 3 false starts on their first drive in a friendly stadium. They had at least 12 penalties in the game and lost.

Our pass blocking was very good. JC got hit a few times, but he mostly had at least as much time as he needed to throw.

And the crowd was definitely into the game. Good and loud at the right times into the fourth quarter. I’ll let actual attendees confirm this, but it sounded good on NBC.

And I’ve always liked blitzes. We blitz a lot!

So what wasn’t good today?

First, many of Nevada’s big gains resulted from their QB breaking contain and running for first downs. Good on the pass coverage—no one was open. Bad on keeping the QB in the box. For example, on their last drive of the first half, we missed two clean sacks that turned in to 23 and 17 yard gains.

Also, I’m not convinced our run blocking is in a very good place yet. We averaged 4.3 yards per carry, but I’ll state it was a weak 4.3. The big bad plays on my list include a 3rd and 2 on the 3rd drive of the second half and a 3rd and 1 on the 4th drive of the second half. Gain of one, loss of one, two punts. While I realize the game was well in hand and we probably had several 2nd teamers in on the line, too bad. We should have been able to convert against a by then demoralized Nevada defense and we didn’t. I’m not a believer yet. Especially given our O-line now has 100 cumulative starts among them.

Interesting note: three Freshmen had impact. Nick Tausch may be our 4 year kicker, although he didn’t kick off long enough and didn’t get to try any field goals, which would have been nice. Theo Riddick is returning kicks and got carries at tailback. And our new crowd favorite seems to be Manti Te’o. That bodes well.

And finally, this week’s minor miracle: an NBC game lasted less than three hours!

Conclusion: A highly satisfactory team effort.

But let’s not get all ga-ga and start predicting 12-0 here.

Another set of numbers to ponder: 31. 44. 52. 56. 44. 38. 39. Those are point totals from today of several of our 2009 opponents. While many of them weren’t playing challenging foes, they definitely demonstrated an ability to score. Plus, Navy almost beat Ohio State and Washington gave LSU a halfway decent tussle.

So it’s on to Ann Arbor to face a potentially rejuvenated Michigan team. Hopefully their true freshman quarterback will show his “freshman-ness” in the face of our defense. More on that later this week.

Good play. Good result. Good start.

GO IRISH!!!! BEAT WOLVERINES!!!!

The Colonel.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Season of Hope

Right now I'm enjoying the fact that the entire season is unknown and has unlimited potential. It's a good place to be...once the kickoff occurs, we're back to analyzing every angle, every play, every tackle. I like to live with rose colored glasses (Nina-Rose colored?) and believe that anything can happen this year, even a National Championship. This evening, that all will change.

We're packing up the car and heading out there this morning. A beautiful day and the start of an amazing season!! Go Irish!

All I want for my birthday

Is some good football! I admit I haven't been following too closely lately; between welcoming an exchange student from France, getting Kyle ready for high school and the milestone birthday (which, finally, is today, we've celebrated since May when Bob had his) I just haven't devoted much time to reading the preseason information. Of course, around here we've been inundated with Doug Marrone and the Orangemen. In all charity, I hope that SU does respectably. They host Minnesota today and I'm not going but will be DVR'ing all the games I can for later.

In the meantime, I'm spending my birthday with a surprise guest -- my dearest high school friend -- and we're renewing old ties.

GO IRISH! ND 21 Minnesota 17

Whack the (Wolf) Pack!!

OK Sports Fans, are you READY TO RUMMMMMBBBBBLLLLE?

It is time to get serious. I hope the lads in uniform realise this. I've definitely sensed a lack of "stick-to-it-tivenss" in our last two editions of Irish Football. Care to disagree? Please reply for all to see.

While I want to see a defense that sticks like stink on a stink bug, this team will win on its offensive line (see season prediction in my last post). If we rush for over 150 yards against Nevada, we win. If we don't, it's a toss up, based on turnover margin.

Given the spread (ND giving 14.5) and the Over/Under (61.5), I would bet on Nevada and the Under:

IRISH 27 Wolfpack 17

The Colonel

Friday, September 04, 2009

Life (for the next 13 weeks) as I See It

So here we are, all together as we sing our song, joyfully..

Will there be joy in Mudville? I'm not sure. Read on...

The most season impacting two words of Godfather's assessment (expertly rendered as usual) are: "Lukewarm Yes" on the Offensive Line. As our O-line goes, so goes the season. If we can make 3rd and 1 or 2 an automatic, then we are BCS competitive, given our schedule. And not, as Don says, with QB sneaks. Line plunges by the FB or TB need to be easy, not questionable.

Jimmy C will improve, but I don't think he will ever reach Hesiman contention quality. But neither did our last 3 (at least) national championship QBs.

The defense turns to the "better athlete" question. Do we have some D-backs that can hang with the good/great receivers? I don't know. I thought we were trying a more aggressive D last year but we couldn't get to the QB enough. Pressure makes D-backs look a lot better.

The good (or bad) thing about blogs is you can search history. I predicted 8-4 last year.

Ouch.

So guess what? I'm predicting 8-4 again this year, and Charlie keeps his job with a Bowl Game win. I'll categorize as last year:

Definite Wins (6): Nevada, Michigan, Washington, Washington State, Navy, UConn

(Last year: 3-3: W - SDSU, UW, Navy; L - Syracuse, Pitt and UNC)

Close Call Wins (1): Stanford

(Last year: 1-0: W - Stanford)

Toss Up (1 of 2): Purdue and Michigan State. We never beat them both.

(Last year: 1 of 2: W - Purdue; L - MSU)

Should win but won't (0-2): Pitt and Boston College. Pitt is on the road and BC is the week after USC. Plus, until we beat these guys again, I can't predict we will.

(Last year: N/A: didn't predict any)

Should lose (0-1): Southern Cal. They've got issues, so if we're playing well, we could make our season on this game. But I won't believe it until I see it.

(Last year: 1-2: W - Michigan; L - BC, Southern Cal)

So I'm predicting a less than expected year. Call me a pessimist I guess. If we get on a roll in September, we have a chance to beat SC and have a special season.

Offensive Line. Offensive Line. Offensive Line.

GO IRISH!!!! BEAT WOLF PACK!!!

The Colonel Speaks

Irish Start with a Win

Short and Simple. Irish play well tomorrow but face a pesky opponent. Weather will be beautiful!

My prediction for this week: ND 34, Nevada 24.

Go Irish! Beat Wolf Pack!

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Five Big Questions for ND Football 2009

I promised more of my musings around the 5 big questions as we approach the football season. Game 1 prediction will come late this week. So for now, here are my views on the 5 questions.

1. Will we finally see the offensive line play like a college line?

My answer is a lukewarm yes. The team has more experience, more muscle and a new line coach but basically the same guys so I don't expect a dramatic improvement. But even a modest improvement could make a huge difference for the team. A little more time for the QB to throw, a little more push for some great running backs and all of a sudden you have a consistent offense. The big test for me will be if we can reliably gain 1 yard on those 3rd & short plays. Our hit rate the last couple years has to be about 20% and often we had to rely on a quarterback sneak. Good teams get the 1 yard gain 90% of the time to keep drives going and exert their will over the opposition. So the answer is better, and better will be a big deal for the Irish.

2. Has Clausen finally turned the corner and become the star quarterback?

My answer is no. I expect him to have a good year and hopefully play a little smarter but don't expect his name to appear in any Heisman ballots. I suppose you have to be a bit of a gunslinger to be a good quarterback. If one is afraid you will never succeed. But Jimmy seems to make a lot of bonehead decisions and I think this will prevent him from really becoming the star we hope he will be someday. He will probably have a couple games like the bowl game where he looks like Superman; but watch for the bad days against the likes of USC.

3. Do we see a new aggressive, attacking defensive scheme this year?

Yes we will. An improved offense is likely to score a lot and this should free up the defense to take more risks which is coordinator Tenuta's style. We have some speed as well so I expect more sacks, more interceptions, more turnovers and more tackles for a loss than in 2008. I do think we may be scored on more than last year but I am hoping it will not matter as the offense should be lighting it up.

4. Do the Irish compete for a BCS bowl spot?

Yes they do. Given that I have already predicted a 10-2 season, I have to expect we will be in the mix for a BCS bowl berth, particularly with the favorable Irish qualification criteria. Every bowl loves to have us alums come down and spend money! Even at 9-3 we should be on the fringe of the BCS list depending on what the top tier teams do along the way. Block your calendar for the first week of January!

5. Where will Charlie Weis fall on the goat to saint spectrum in 2009?

This is the most difficult question in my list. So let's look at it in a few different ways. If ND beats USC this year, start making the Charlie statue to replace Mary on the Golden Dome. Assuming that does not happen, I don't think he can achieve saint status unless he somehow wins the national championship (yes, we can lose to USC and still see that happen). But since that is also a crazy idea (sorry Lou Holtz) I am afraid that goat status is possible. Last season was marred by a couple games we should have won. Not just because of the score or particular game in 2008, but because we should ALWAYS beat a Syracuse. Charlie is a bad game coach and if an overachieving doormat opponent (say Nevada or Washington State or Stanford) jumps up and bites us, expect Weis burned in effigy. My bottom line answer is Charlie will fall short of saint but achieve "loved" status as he brings the Irish back to national prominence and maybe a big bowl game.

What do you think?