Season Prediction

Well, here we go again. A new season dawns and so do the high expectations. I had to look back at my last few blog posts to remember what I wrote at the time of our dismal 2008 end-of-season performance. Do not want to be too much of a hypocrite but have to admit this season looks pretty rosy and we should expect good things. The general internet buzz is that anything less than 9 wins should be a big disappointment for the Irish and I am inclined to agree. Most of the predictions are for 10 wins. The contention is we are bigger, stronger, more experienced and made a couple assistant coaching changes that will matter this year. I actually think we will win 10 and contend for a BCS bowl position. How and when we win our games may make all the difference because our strength of schedule is not great. Hate to pick all of them this early but this will give you readers something to debate with me. So away we go on 2009.

Sports Illustrated has ND ranked #25 and predicts 9-3 with an appearance in the Gator Bowl (wasn't that supposed to happen last year?). Here is the SI ranking of our opponents (see if you can guess which team is what rank): 4, 29, 30, 45, 52, 53, 62, 64, 71, 85, 87 and 105. This is the biggest reason we are expected to win so many. I see the three cornerstone games this year as Nevada, USC and Pittsburgh. The first game will tell us a lot about the team and we will be facing a pesky opponent with something to prove. Should we be undefeated going into the USC game, look out! Then finally a tough road game in Pittsburgh will be a challenge. So let’s see how I get to 10-2.

I should be concerned about Nevada as a trap game, they have a good team and we could overlook them. They also want to make a point about not being a BCS conference participant so their US Senator can write legislation about college football. Just what we need from Congress these days! But I am guessing the glint off the Golden Dome gets to them and we win using the opening game buzz to carry the day. I will rate the 3 Big Ten games together. As usual, I expect to lose one in that set just not sure which one. Michigan is still rebuilding and Purdue is so-so. MSU has been playing us incredibly tough this decade and you can bet they want to keep that string intact. So we go 2-1 in that stretch (if we win them all look out for the hype!). Washington has a new coach and will get better but not this year. Irish win, which takes us to 4-1 going into an off week.

October features two outstanding home games that bookend the student fall break. As much as I hate USC and want to win that game, the odds making side of my brain tells me to pick the Trojans. They still have too much firepower. We lose but send notice we are back by playing a good game. This should be start of a great set of ND-USC games for several years. Then BC comes into town and we stomp them. We have played them okay the last two years if you recall and I think the talent lines crossed in the off season. Then comes the “Barnstorming” game against Washington State in San Antonio on Halloween. First rule of new barnstorming program: Win them All! We exit October at 6-2 and are in top 20.

After beating Navy, we have a string of 3 decent opponents but here is where I think the NEW Irish (new in that they get BETTER in November, not worse) kick into a higher gear and finish out on roll beating Pitt, UConn, and Stanford to earn a BCS bowl bid. Final record is 10-2. Unless we lose to Pitt of course.

What do you think?

My next blog will be about my 5 key questions for 2009. Here they are:

1. Will we finally see the offensive line play like a college line?
2. Has Clausen finally turned the corner and become the star quarterback?
3. Do we see a new aggressive, attacking defensive scheme this year?
4. Do the Irish compete for a BCS bowl spot?
5. Where will Charlie Weis fall on the goat to saint spectrum in 2009?

Join in the discussion! GO IRISH!